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Abstract Background and Aims In a range of plant species, the distribution of individual mean fecundity is skewed and dominated by a few highly fecund individuals. Larger plants produce greater seed crops, but the exact nature of the relationship between size and reproductive patterns is poorly understood. This is especially clear in plants that reproduce by exhibiting synchronized quasi-periodic variation in fruit production, a process called masting. Methods We investigated covariation of plant size and fecundity with individual-plant-level masting patterns and seed predation in 12 mast-seeding species: Pinus pinea, Astragalus scaphoides, Sorbus aucuparia, Quercus ilex, Q. humilis, Q. rubra, Q. alba, Q. montana, Chionochloa pallens, C. macra, Celmisia lyallii and Phormium tenax. Key Results Fecundity was non-linearly related to masting patterns. Small and unproductive plants frequently failed to produce any seeds, which elevated their annual variation and decreased synchrony. Above a low fecundity threshold, plants had similar variability and synchrony, regardless of their size and productivity. Conclusions Our study shows that within-species variation in masting patterns is correlated with variation in fecundity, which in turn is related to plant size. Low synchrony of low-fertility plants shows that the failure years were idiosyncratic to each small plant, which in turn implies that the small plants fail to reproduce because of plant-specific factors (e.g. internal resource limits). Thus, the behaviour of these sub-producers is apparently the result of trade-offs in resource allocation and environmental limits with which the small plants cannot cope. Plant size and especially fecundity and propensity for mast failure years play a major role in determining the variability and synchrony of reproduction in plants. 

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution. 

Abstract The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential. 

Abstract Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates. 

Abstract Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long‐lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time‐series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population‐level time‐series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time‐series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well‐studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time‐series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open‐access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web‐based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long‐lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.